Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 131,068
2 South Dakota 127,133
3 Rhode Island 119,494
4 Utah 115,875
5 Arizona 112,419
6 Tennessee 111,564
7 Oklahoma 107,377
8 Arkansas 106,868
9 Iowa 106,777
10 Wisconsin 106,089
11 Nebraska 104,195
12 Kansas 102,095
13 Alabama 100,703
14 South Carolina 100,602
15 Mississippi 99,119
16 Indiana 98,841
17 Idaho 96,033
18 Nevada 95,469
19 Wyoming 94,116
20 Illinois 94,004
21 Montana 93,672
22 Georgia 92,666
23 Louisiana 92,605
24 Texas 91,786
25 Kentucky 91,513
26 California 90,432
27 Delaware 89,426
28 New Jersey 89,223
29 Florida 88,971
30 New Mexico 88,370
31 Minnesota 86,051
32 New York 84,846
33 Massachusetts 84,518
34 Missouri 84,334
35 Ohio 82,886
36 North Carolina 82,568
37 Alaska 79,597
38 Connecticut 79,271
39 Colorado 75,048
40 West Virginia 73,681
41 Pennsylvania 73,293
42 Virginia 67,620
43 Michigan 64,821
44 Maryland 63,331
45 District of Columbia 57,646
46 New Hampshire 55,591
47 Washington 45,138
48 Puerto Rico 42,019
49 Oregon 36,956
50 Maine 33,299
51 Vermont 24,494
52 Hawaii 19,421

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arkansas 427
2 New York 382
3 New Jersey 362
4 Delaware 336
5 Rhode Island 303
6 South Carolina 303
7 Connecticut 250
8 Georgia 234
9 Massachusetts 220
10 Colorado 214
11 Florida 197
12 Texas 197
13 District of Columbia 188
14 Pennsylvania 187
15 North Carolina 180
16 Virginia 177
17 Alaska 174
18 Vermont 171
19 New Hampshire 170
20 Mississippi 162
21 Oklahoma 157
22 Kentucky 153
23 West Virginia 151
24 Utah 146
25 Louisiana 137
26 South Dakota 136
27 Tennessee 135
28 Arizona 133
29 Minnesota 133
30 Alabama 130
31 Ohio 128
32 Maryland 124
33 Montana 119
34 Nebraska 118
35 Maine 115
36 Illinois 110
37 Iowa 110
38 Michigan 110
39 Indiana 105
40 California 102
41 Idaho 102
42 Nevada 96
43 Wisconsin 95
44 New Mexico 89
45 Washington 78
46 Oregon 76
47 Puerto Rico 75
48 Kansas 72
49 Wyoming 69
50 Missouri 63
51 North Dakota 61
52 Hawaii 42

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,620
2 New York 2,428
3 Rhode Island 2,375
4 Massachusetts 2,342
5 Mississippi 2,244
6 Arizona 2,195
7 Connecticut 2,145
8 South Dakota 2,134
9 Louisiana 2,071
10 Alabama 2,025
11 North Dakota 1,935
12 Pennsylvania 1,879
13 Indiana 1,870
14 Illinois 1,796
15 New Mexico 1,779
16 Arkansas 1,739
17 Iowa 1,734
18 South Carolina 1,662
19 Tennessee 1,658
20 Michigan 1,653
21 Kansas 1,628
22 Nevada 1,609
23 Georgia 1,585
24 Texas 1,520
25 Ohio 1,484
26 Delaware 1,460
27 District of Columbia 1,443
28 Florida 1,443
29 Missouri 1,366
30 California 1,328
31 Maryland 1,303
32 West Virginia 1,283
33 Montana 1,270
34 Wisconsin 1,205
35 Minnesota 1,162
36 Wyoming 1,159
37 Nebraska 1,139
38 Oklahoma 1,131
39 North Carolina 1,076
40 Kentucky 1,074
41 Colorado 1,049
42 Idaho 1,045
43 Virginia 1,028
44 New Hampshire 860
45 Washington 661
46 Puerto Rico 637
47 Utah 605
48 Oregon 526
49 Maine 522
50 Alaska 395
51 Vermont 328
52 Hawaii 307

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Virginia 22
2 Oklahoma 13
3 New Mexico 6
4 California 5
5 Florida 5
6 Massachusetts 5
7 New York 5
8 South Carolina 5
9 Texas 5
10 Alabama 4
11 Alaska 4
12 District of Columbia 4
13 Georgia 4
14 Kentucky 4
15 Mississippi 4
16 Ohio 4
17 Rhode Island 4
18 Arizona 3
19 Indiana 3
20 New Jersey 3
21 South Dakota 3
22 Utah 3
23 Connecticut 2
24 Illinois 2
25 Louisiana 2
26 Maryland 2
27 Michigan 2
28 North Carolina 2
29 Pennsylvania 2
30 Tennessee 2
31 Colorado 1
32 Delaware 1
33 Idaho 1
34 Minnesota 1
35 Nebraska 1
36 Nevada 1
37 North Dakota 1
38 Puerto Rico 1
39 West Virginia 1
40 Hawaii 0
41 Iowa 0
42 Kansas 0
43 Maine 0
44 Missouri 0
45 Montana 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 Wisconsin 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Arkansas -17

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 337,898 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 282,387 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,196 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 242,015 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 239,647 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 129,077 226 92
Richland South Carolina 99,683 1085 65
York South Carolina 95,011 1295 58
Orange California 82,315 1876 40
Pierce Washington 42,689 2900 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 7,563 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,295 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,930 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,249 1925 38
Orange California 1,235 1950 37
Richland South Carolina 1,198 2000 36
York South Carolina 1,185 2016 35
Pierce Washington 612 2697 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons